Dmitry Medvedev is no joker

this guy just moved up the "I'm not fucking around" ladder. Granted I just invented the ladder but Dmitry Medvedev (DM) has gone from a casually dismissed technocrat hand picked to be Putin's puppet prez to an outright power mongering disciple of Putin-ocracy. excellent. Recently DM signed a decree formally recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states and called on other states to follow his country's example. This decree was signed just 10 days after Russia agreed to a cease fire plan brokered by none other than the French president, irony much? Medvedev's bravado is a real trip.

Mr Medvedev said he had "taken into account the expression of free will by the Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples" and accused Georgia of failing over many years to negotiate a peaceful settlement. Loosely translated : While Mother Russia has used past transgressions of ethnic cleansing to tenuously justify this current invasion our real goal is to create a measure of instability in the region in order to boost the recent drop in oil prices on the global market. oh and don't forget the 21st century land grab. more coast line and complete control of Ossetia will allow for the upper hand in controlling the flow of black gold through the Western Early pipeline. More on that in a few paragraphs.

BBC map
South Ossetia
Population: About 70,000 (before recent conflict)
Capital: Tskhinvali
President: Eduard Kokoity
Population: About 250,000 (2003)
Capital: Sukhumi
President: Sergei Bagapsh

"Th(is) was no easy choice to make, but it is the sole chance of saving people's lives," he added. I think he means solidifying state owned oil firms delivery contracts.

International dismay at Russia's declaration came almost immediately. No surprise here, the only people who want to see a stronger Russia would be........just Russia.

President Bush said Russia should "reconsider this irresponsible decision" and "live up to its international commitments". thankfully Bush is an expert on invading sovereign nations.

"This decision is inconsistent with numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions that Russia has voted for in the past, and is also inconsistent with the French-brokered six-point ceasefire agreement which President Medvedev signed," he said in a statement.

"Russia's action only exacerbates tensions and complicates diplomatic negotiations," he added. I say so what. seriously who is Bush to speak on Russia's border expansion? the last time I checked the motherland used to own all this land and if Georgia can't defend themselves then they aren't really worthy of holding these territories. Think of it as a recall.

So more on this oil pipeline angle. 1st you need to know exactly where the Ossetia is.

The little Green blob is Ossetia. the next image is a blowup of the region and the pic with the horrible ms paint lines (via EIA) shows the approximate lining of 2 major oil pipelines. the Baku-Supan or "Western Early" pipeline handles 150,000 to 200,000 BPD. that's barrels per day. 1 Barrel contains 42 US Gallons. The Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) has an output 10 times larger, more than 1,000,000 BPD.

Most people might not be too versed on the oil industry in Russia; in very blunt terms the state owns the biggest firms and has been very involved in firming up complete control of all oil fields in the region. All the while pushing out foreign corporations. I need to write a solo post on it especially since I'm drifting from the original message.

So the reason that all of these things are related comes down to the simple fact that Russia has invested itself into the oil market on an unheard of scale, outside of countries in the Middle East. And in doing so they have become tied to the prices and unforeseen fluctuations in the oil market as a result of such heavily vested state financial ties. To me it seems logical that Russia invaded Ossetia in order to create an opportunity to either take over the pipeline in critical regions or to simply destroy it. either of these outcomes will benefit Mother Russia's interests.

Instead of going to the source like the US did in Iraq, Medvedev and Putin decided to attack the distribution angle. Its more logical, closer to home and has a much higher chance of succeeding than any attempt at land grab in a source country would allow.

DM and Putin are willing to stave off any diplomatic repercussions that may result from an extended stay in Georgia. Ruskie reclamation of the break away regions will solidify oil interests and further extend control over distribution channels. The rest of the world can cower at the thought of a renewed cold war but it would make sense for Russia to continue on their path and remain two faced in front of world leaders. Their recent actions dictate they have no problem directly contradicting the peace plan recently agreed upon with Georgia. All told foreign interests are powerless to mount any credible threat of halting this current invasion. Russia is entrenching itself in Ossetia and unless the US & nato are putting feet on the ground there is no real hope of stopping Medvedev's expansionist designs.

DM has a clean & efficient website, didn't expect this http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/

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